BACKGROUND: Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. METHODS: After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. RESULTS: Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje / Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Baccini, Michela; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen; Spasenovska, Margarita. - In: BMC PUBLIC HEALTH. - ISSN 1471-2458. - ELETTRONICO. - 16:(2016), pp. 407-407. [10.1186/s12889-016-3077-y]

Projected heat-related mortality under climate change in the metropolitan area of Skopje

BACCINI, MICHELA;
2016

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Excessive summer heat is a serious environmental health problem in Skopje, the capital and largest city of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This paper attempts to forecast the impact of heat on mortality in Skopje in two future periods under climate change and compare it with a historical baseline period. METHODS: After ascertaining the relationship between daily mean ambient air temperature and daily mortality in Skopje, we modelled the evolution of ambient temperatures in the city under a Representative Concentration Pathway scenario (RCP8.5) and the evolution of the city population in two future time periods: 2026-2045 and 2081-2100, and in a past time period (1986-2005) to serve as baseline for comparison. We then calculated the projected average annual mortality attributable to heat in the absence of adaptation or acclimatization during those time windows, and evaluated the contribution of each source of uncertainty on the final impact. RESULTS: Our estimates suggest that, compared to the baseline period (1986-2005), heat-related mortality in Skopje would more than double in 2026-2045, and more than quadruple in 2081-2100. When considering the impact in 2081-2100, sampling variability around the heat-mortality relationship and climate model explained 40.3 and 46.6 % of total variability. CONCLUSION: These results highlight the importance of a long-term perspective in the public health prevention of heat exposure, particularly in the context of a changing climate.
2016
16
407
407
Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Baccini, Michela; De Ridder, Koen; Hooyberghs, Hans; Lefebvre, Wouter; Kendrovski, Vladimir; Scott, Kristen; Spasenovska, Margarita
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
martinez_2016.pdf

accesso aperto

Tipologia: Pdf editoriale (Version of record)
Licenza: Open Access
Dimensione 641.88 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
641.88 kB Adobe PDF

I documenti in FLORE sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificatore per citare o creare un link a questa risorsa: https://hdl.handle.net/2158/1065797
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 23
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 20
social impact