Abstract: Uncertainty about climate change increases the complexity of addressing adaptation and optimizing risk management at regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty, simulating and communicating climate impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here, we applied an ensemble of 8 crop models to identify suitable adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat at Lleida, NE Spain, and analyze the results by constructing adaptation response surfaces. These are plotted surfaces showing the response of an adaptation option compared to the non-adapted simulation in an impact variable (e.g. yield changes) for a range of systematic changes in temperature and precipitation. The general methodology was adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). The adaptation options explored were changes in sowing dates, cultivar phenology, supplementary irrigation and combinations of these. A "full irrigation" scenario also served as a reference for identifying yield potentials and associated water requirements. The results indicated that adaptation strategies may help to reduce detrimental effects of climate change. Combined adaptations performed better than single adaptation options. The best results were obtained when a nonvernalizing cultivar was sown 2 weeks earlier and given 40 mm of supplementary irrigation at anthesis. However, some rainfed only options also shown potential for mitigating climate change impacts. Our analysis evaluated if the explored adaptations fulfill the biophysical requirements to become practical adaptative solutions. This study exemplified how adaptation options and their responses can be analyzed, evaluated and communicated in a context of high regional uncertainty for current and future conditions and for short to longterm perspectives.
Wheat Yield Potential in Europe Under Climate Change Explored by Adaptation Response Surfaces / Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodríguez, A.; Lorite, I. J.. - ELETTRONICO. - (2016), pp. 43-43. (Intervento presentato al convegno Seeking Sustainable Agricultural solutions tenutosi a Montpellier nel 28-30 giugno 2016).
Wheat Yield Potential in Europe Under Climate Change Explored by Adaptation Response Surfaces
FERRISE, ROBERTO;
2016
Abstract
Abstract: Uncertainty about climate change increases the complexity of addressing adaptation and optimizing risk management at regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty, simulating and communicating climate impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here, we applied an ensemble of 8 crop models to identify suitable adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat at Lleida, NE Spain, and analyze the results by constructing adaptation response surfaces. These are plotted surfaces showing the response of an adaptation option compared to the non-adapted simulation in an impact variable (e.g. yield changes) for a range of systematic changes in temperature and precipitation. The general methodology was adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). The adaptation options explored were changes in sowing dates, cultivar phenology, supplementary irrigation and combinations of these. A "full irrigation" scenario also served as a reference for identifying yield potentials and associated water requirements. The results indicated that adaptation strategies may help to reduce detrimental effects of climate change. Combined adaptations performed better than single adaptation options. The best results were obtained when a nonvernalizing cultivar was sown 2 weeks earlier and given 40 mm of supplementary irrigation at anthesis. However, some rainfed only options also shown potential for mitigating climate change impacts. Our analysis evaluated if the explored adaptations fulfill the biophysical requirements to become practical adaptative solutions. This study exemplified how adaptation options and their responses can be analyzed, evaluated and communicated in a context of high regional uncertainty for current and future conditions and for short to longterm perspectives.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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