A wide variety of dynamic crop growth simulation models have been developed over the past few decades that can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, multi-model ensemble approaches have been adopted to quantify aspects of uncertainty in simulating yield responses to climate change (e.g. Asseng et al., 2013). An ensemble of 26 process-based crop models was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at three sites: in Finland (mainly temperature-limited), Germany (close to optimal conditions) and Spain (precipitation limited).Ensemble median responses showed declining yields with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and yield increases with higher precipitation. However, indi-vidual models departed considerably from the average.
Classifying simulated wheat yield responses to changes in temperature and precipitation across a european transect / Fronzek, N Pirttioja; Carter, T R; Bindi, M; Hoffmann, H; Palosuo, T; Ruiz-Ramos, M; Tao, F; Trnka, M; Acutis, M; Asseng, S; Baranowski, P; Basso, B; Bodin, P; Buis, S; Cammarano, D; Deligios, P; Destain, M-F; Dumont, B; Ewert, F; Ferrise, R; François, L; Gaiser, T; Hlavinki, P; Jacquemin, I; Kersebaum, K C; Kollas, C; Krzyszczak, J; Lorite, I J; Minet, J; Minguez, M I; Montesino, M; Moriondo, M; Müller, C; Nendel, C; Öztürk, I; Perego, A; Rodríguez, A; Ruane, A C; Ruget, F; Sanna, M; Semenov, M A; Slawinski, C; Stratonovitch, P; Supit, I; Waha, K; Wang, E; Wu, L; Zhao, Z; Rötter, R P; Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T. R.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; M, .; Destain, F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; François, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinki, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I. J.; Minet, J.; Minguez, M. I.; Montesino, M.; Moriondo, M.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruane, A. C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M. A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.. - ELETTRONICO. - (2016), pp. 61-62. (Intervento presentato al convegno Crop Modelling for Agricultur and Food Security under Climate Change tenutosi a Berlino nel 15-17 marzo 2016).
Classifying simulated wheat yield responses to changes in temperature and precipitation across a european transect
BINDI, MARCO;FERRISE, ROBERTO;
2016
Abstract
A wide variety of dynamic crop growth simulation models have been developed over the past few decades that can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, multi-model ensemble approaches have been adopted to quantify aspects of uncertainty in simulating yield responses to climate change (e.g. Asseng et al., 2013). An ensemble of 26 process-based crop models was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at three sites: in Finland (mainly temperature-limited), Germany (close to optimal conditions) and Spain (precipitation limited).Ensemble median responses showed declining yields with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and yield increases with higher precipitation. However, indi-vidual models departed considerably from the average.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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