Why are Marriage and Family Formation Increasingly Disconnected across Europe? A Multi-level Perspective on Existing Theories

The share of couples who do not marry prior to having a child has drastically increased in recent decades, but existing explanations for this development are not coherent. Proponents of the Second Demographic Transition interpret it rather as a pattern of progress driven by processes such as emancipation from traditional social norms. Others see rises in childbearing outside marriage being related to a “pattern of disadvantage” as they are often concentrated among individuals faced with blocked opportunities. In this paper we posit that the relevance of these explanations varies according to the geographic scale at which variation occurs – i.e. across individuals, subnational regions or nation states. To test this hypothesis, we study socio-economic determinants of whether couples have their first child in cohabitation or marriage, analysing harmonized survey data from 16 European countries. We propose a three-level hierarchical model to look simultaneously at variation across individuals, subnational regions and nation states. Our results advise that the Second Demographic Transition theory is central to understanding variation between countries, while the narrative of the pattern of disadvantage seems more relevant to understanding variation across individuals and regions. Thus, our findings suggest that the spatial perspective cannot be overlooked when interpreting patterns of family formation across Europe.