Water scarcity and migration: a simple theoretical approach.

In this chapter, the authors investigate migration as an environmental defensive choice to protect from water scarcity. They propose a theoretical model where a population of economic agents has to decide whether to migrate due to water problems. The authors assume a bi-directional link between migration and water scarcity: the agents’ migration choice simultaneously affects and is affected by the availability of water. Water scarcity emerged as an increasingly serious phenomenon which causes growing migration as the answer of individuals from areas subject to water scarcity. However, only few theoretical models have investigated the impact of water scarcity on the migration choice. The analysis shows that the dynamics of the model may lead to undesirable outcomes since people may move toward the more water-consuming economy. Numerical simulations confirm our a priori expectations: the wage rate rises at increasing values of natural recharge, while decreases at increasing values of the output elasticities of water, agents’ negative environmental externalities, and total population.