Stochastic population forecasting: an application to Florentine Area

Cohort-component models have been used for many years to project future population under a variety of scenarios. However, little work has been carried out on the effects of uncertainty in the model inputs on projection outcomes. During a previous research, population of Florence has been projected according to deterministic cohort-component models to describe the consequences of different trends of fertility, mortality and migration models. This paper aims to investigate the effect of uncertainty using a stochastic projection model for florentine area, considered as a small area.