The Role of Relevant Knowledge and Cognitive Ability in Gambler Fallacy.

A new model by Stanovich et al. (2008) specifies the ways in which knowledge and cognitive capacity might interact in shaping reasoning performance. This model proposes that normative performance relies on knowing relevant rules and procedures (called “mindware”), detecting the need to implement them, and holding of the necessary cognitive capacity to acquire/use them appropriately. The aim of the present study was to test these assumptions investigating gambler fallacy inside probabilistic reasoning. Participants were primary (N=251) and college students (N=151). Results provide support for the claim that mindware plays an important role in probabilistic reasoning, and there is an interplay with cognitive ability. Theoretical and educational implications of results are discussed.