Quality and reliability in top-event estimation: quantitative Fault Tree Analysis in case of dependent events

This paper deals with the quantitative Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and the estimation method of the top-event in case of dependent events. It aims at addressing two main issues: i) the decomposition of variability for the top-event according to several error components linked to the estimation of the top-event and sources of internal and external variations for a complex system; ii) the definition of a Performance Measure Independent of Adjustment in order to set the quality of the top-event as a complex measure of the system failure. A simulated study applied to the health system is also carried out.