Un modello di programmazione matematica positiva georeferenziata per la valutazione degli effetti indotti dalla riforma della politica agricola comune: un caso di studio

Common agricultural policy (CAP) is still profoundly changing under the pressure of European society and economic trends. The dynamics of consolidation, evaluation and redirection of the legislative measures adopted are very important and topical in view of the definition of the common agricultural policy. These issues emphasize the need for policy makers to have evaluative instruments which can analyze both the effects on farmers behaviour and the effects generated in the territory. The present work aims to implement and to test in a case study an evaluation instrument based on the integration of two different methodologies: the positive mathematical programming (PMP) and the geographic information system (GIS). With this research, we want to propose a possible method to study at the same time the behaviour of farmers and the localization of their choices under different political conditions. The construction of a georeferred database makes possible to consider the spatial characteristics as variables directly involved in the process of mathematics optimization. Therefore, the geographic information system is used not only to locate the effects of policies, but also to constrain the mathematical model. The proposed model was applied in a rural area in the province of Florence, the Mugello. Results obtained show how Cap reform induced a reallocation of farms resources and that it did not lead to the feared abandonment of primary activity. In addition, the elaboration of results provide important information to the policy makers in order to develop monitoring actions in those areas which show potential problems. This model, for its flexibility and ductility, may constitute the basis for simulate and analyze the potential effects induced by the proposals, for example, in the health check of the CAP.