GIS-based models for environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants: poplar case study in forest ecosystems in Mediterranean environment

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) and ecosystem monitoring associated with genetically modified (GM) organisms is a topic of broad interest. An essential step in the development of products based on genetically modified plants (GMPs) is an assessment of safety, including an evaluation of the potential impact of the crop and practices related to its cultivation on the environment and human or animal health. The literature describes several ways to complete a risk analysis, nevertheless, researches are still needed to implement the EU Directive within a standardized methodological reference framework. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a powerful tool for spatial analysis and modeling used to assist the decision-making process. GIS have been considered for ERA and monitoring of GMPs. However, the potential of GIS to assist the ERA as indicated in EFSA is an aspect to be further developed. The aim of this work was the development of a method to assess the environmental risk generated by transgenic Bt-poplar plants. To this end, four areas of concern are considered: persistence and invasiveness of GMPs, interaction of GM plants with microorganisms, interaction of GM plants with target and non target organisms. In addition, we describe how GIS-based models might be used by risk assessors to support and complement the ERA of GMPs from local scale to landscape level taking into consideration a specific area of concern indicated in EFSA: persistence and invasiveness of the GMPs or its compatible relatives.