Use of Crop Simulation Models to Study Durum Wheat Phenological and Productive Response at Variation of Sowing Date

Projected climate change in the Mediterranean area might threaten economically important crops, such as durum wheat, since their yield is highly sensitive to variability of the weather pattern. Crop simulation models are one of the most exploited tool for investigating the response of crops under future climate and explore the effect of proposed adaptation options. This research is focused on studying the capacity of two crop models to reproduce phenology and yield of two Italian durum wheat varieties when sown in unusual sowing dates. SiriusQuality2 (SQ2) and SSM-Wheat, two mechanistic models of different complexity and approaches to reproduce crop processes, are adopted for the simulation of phenology and yield in response to weather and crop management. Despite satisfactory results in the calibration process, model responses may deviate when they are applied to conditions different from the ordinary environmental ones, such as those due to unusual sowing dates. In such extreme conditions, the ability of a model in reproducing biological processes might fail.