Principal Score Methods: Assumptions, Extensions, and Practical Considerations

Researchers addressing posttreatment complications in randomized trials often turn to principal stratification to define relevant assumptions and quantities of interest. One approach for the subsequent estimation of causal effects in this framework is to use methods based on the “principal score,” the conditional probability of belonging to a certain principal stratum given covariates. These methods typically assume that stratum membership is as good as randomly assigned, given these covariates. We clarify the key assumption in this context, known as principal ignorability, and argue that versions of this assumption are quite strong in practice. We describe these concepts in terms of both one- and two-sided noncompliance and propose a novel approach for researchers to “mix and match” principal ignorability assumptions with alternative assumptions, such as the exclusion restriction. Finally, we apply these ideas to randomized evaluations of a job training program and an early childhood education program. Overall, applied researchers should acknowledge that principal score methods, while useful tools, rely on assumptions that are typically hard to justify in practice.