Strategy making in public policies through Delphi method. The case of rail and tramway sector in the Province of Pistoia

The aim of the paper is to investigate the process of decision making in Public Policies through the use of a forecasting method, i.e. policy Delphi, as an instrument that could make a difference for regional development strategies by suggesting some valuable alternative options for policy-makers. Building consensus is an essential component of any policy planning and development process, since it is important to find a “rational” choice among diverging demands of different stakeholders (Rayens&Hahn, 2000; Loo, 2002). The policy Delphi (Dalkey&Helmer, 1963; Dalkey, 1967; Needham&deLoe, 1990) can provide a complex problem with the necessary combination between technical expertise, rational decision-making, public values and preferences (Stern, 1991). Furthermore, it can help developing an effective structure for and understanding of the phenomenon (Franklin&Hart, 2007), obtain reliable information from knowledgeable experts before taking key policy decisions, open up channels of social involvement and offer valid directions for policy changes (Critcher&Gladstone, 1998; Landeta, 2006); additionally, it attempts to facilitate consensus as well as to identify divergence of opinion (Strauss&Zeigler, 1975). In this sense, Delphi represents a method for creating and sharing knowledge and opinions. Although the technique is not exempt from significant methodological weaknesses (Enzer et al., 1971; Franklin&Hart, 2007) and critiques (Sackman, 1974; Becker et al., 1970), the comparisons made with conventional committee action show mostly positive result for the Delphi method (Adler&Ziglio, 1996; Rowe&Wright, 1999). Besides a broad confidentiality provided by the anonymity of the responses, it can forecast future events supported by the experts’ experiences and opinions, assuring an individual-based and independent generation of ideas and avoiding the coordination costs to get all the participants at the same place at the same time (Clayton, 1997). The research project was carried out in the metal and mechanical sector of the Province of Pistoia (Central Italy) and involved a panel of 87 experts, selected from entrepreneurs, academics, policy-makers and trade association members, with a substantial response rate of 40% (35 respondents). A two-round Delphi was sufficient to achieve a satisfied degree of consensus and to highlight critical areas to manage. In particular, the paper stresses some policy implications in terms of the importance of developing the intangible assets, improving a entrepreneurial awareness and creating inter-firm and institutional cooperation in order to exploit the regional attractiveness and to enhance the local identity.