A methodology for probabilistic assessment of adaptation strategies: A case study in the Mediterranean

Uncertainty about future climate change impacts increases the complexity of addressing adaptation and evaluating risks at regional level. To provide useful information to decision makers, approaches are required for effectively quantifying climate impacts and the effect of adaptation options, managing inherent uncertainties and communicating the results. In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the effect of feasible adaptation strategies for winter wheat in northern Spain under two future time periods was applied. The framework was based on coupling adaptation response surfaces and probabilistic projections of climate change to calculate the magnitude and the likelihood of the effect of selected adaptation strategies. Results indicated that a wide scope for adaptation exists when considering combined options. The most promising adaptation strategies were based on a combination of spring wheat, longer growing cycle, advanced sowing date and supplementary irrigation. This provided a virtually certain (likelihood >99%) positive adaptation response (i.e. increase in yield compared to the standard management), with a median yield increase up to 37%. Other feasible strategies were also found for winter wheat with supplementary irrigation (extremely likely positive response, i.e. >95%; median of adaptation response up to 22%) and for spring wheat under rainfed conditions (extremely likely positive response; median up to 20%).