Cause odf effects: an important evaluation in Forensic Science

Causes of Effects} (COE) queries concern the assessment of causal relationship in individual cases by evaluating the probability of causation. However is not always clear how and whether, to usefully employ scientific data for this pourpose. Given even a randomized sample we can typically only provide bounds for the probability of causation if some fundamental conditions, namely exogeneity, comparability and sufficiency, are satisfied. In this work we make the fundamental conditions operative by means of a Bayesian model selection procedure.