A regional-scale landslide warning system based on 20 years of operational experience

SIGMA is a regional landslide warning system based on statistical rainfall thresholds that operates in Emilia Romagna (Italy). In this work, we depict its birth and the continuous development process, still ongoing, after two decades of operational employ. Indeed, a constant work was carried out to gather and incorporate in the modeling new data (extended rainfall recordings, updated landslides inventories, temperature and soil moisture data). The use of these data allowed for regular updates of the model and some conceptual improvements, which consistently increased the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system through time. Landslide forecasting at regional scale is a very complex task, but this paper shows that, as time passes by, the systematic gathering and analysis of new data and the continuous progresses of research activity, uncertainties can be progressively reduced. Thus, by the setting up of forward-looking research programs, the performances and the reliability of regional scale warning systems can be increased with time.