The Impact of Women’s Employment on Divorce: Real Effect, Selection, or Anticipation?

The aim of this study is to deepen our understanding of the nexus between women’s employment and marital stability. We use data from the Generations and Gender Surveys to examine the impact of women’s employment on divorce in Germany, Hungary, Italy, and Poland. Our analytical strategy allows us to account for selection and anticipation mechanisms; i.e., we estimate marital disruption and employment jointly, and look not only at the effects of employment on marital stability, but also at the impact of time since employment entry. We find that women’s employment facilitates marital disruption in Italy and Poland, but not in Germany and Hungary, and discuss the results in light of these countries’ contextual arrangements. We also show that selection effects play out differently in different contexts. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for selection in divorce studies, especially in comparative studies. Finally, we notice traces of anticipation behaviors in Italy, which we attribute to the low employment levels among Italian women.