Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation of Repair Procedures in Gas Distribution Networks

Technological and market evolution motivates investigation into quantitative evaluation of performability of gas distribution networks. This paper proposes an approach for assessing the impact of multi-phased repair procedures, capturing time-variable load profiles for different classes of users, suspension of activities during non-working hours, and random execution times depending on topological, physical, and geographical characteristics of the network. The method interleaves fluid-dynamic analysis of the gas behavior and stochastic analysis of the time spent in the repair procedure, decoupling complexities and making stochastic analysis almost insensitive to the network size and topology, thus making application feasible for real scale cases. Moreover, by encompassing general (non-Markovian) distributions, the approach enables effective fitting of durational properties as emerging in each specific application context.