Pre-design method for advanced public transport systems

Thanks to vehicle automation, a new generation of urban transport systems that can supply car-like quality of service with Public Transport-like impacts was made possible. They are called Advanced Public Transport Systems and consist of small automated collective vehicles running on demand. A pre-design method for a first dimensioning of such systems was developed by simulating nearly 3 000 scenarios with Dial-A-Ride software and performing statistical regressions on the results. The method needs as input: network length, expected demand, vehicle top speed, maximum waiting time, and vehicle capacity. In six steps the method gives: number of vehicles, average waiting time, vehicle{dot operator}kilometers, commercial speed, occupancy rate, and costs. The regressions are given for 20-place vehicles, 15 km/h top speed, and 1 000 s waiting time CTS. All the R2 coefficients are higher than 0.75 and in most cases than 0.85. Empirical validations, made by comparing pre-design regressions with other system data, showed that the method gives accurate results. © 2010 Springer-Verlag