Nonlinear Dynamic Chaos Theory Framework for Passenger Demand Forecasting in Smart City

Recently chaos theory has emerged as a powerful tool to address forecasting problems of nonlinear time series, since it is able to meet the dynamical and geometrical structures of very complex systems, reaching higher accuracy on the prediction values than the classical approaches. This paper aims at applying the chaos theory principles to different problems, in order to pursue high levels of accuracy on the predicted results. After the verification of the chaotic behavior of the datasets taken into analysis through the largest Lyapunov exponent research, the detection of the suitable embedding dimension and time delay has been carried out, in order to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying dynamical systems. Three different predictive methods have been proposed for different datasets. Finally, the performance comparison with the moving average model, a deep neural network based strategy, and a chaos theory based algorithm recently proposed in literature has been provided.