Is the Effect of Job Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions Channeled by Subjective Well-Being?

This article combines two apparently distinct strands of contemporary research on fertility: the literature on economic uncertainty and fertility; and the literature on subjective well-being and fertility. We advance the hypothesis that the impact of term-limited work contracts and precarious jobs on fertility intentions is channeled by an individual’s level of subjective well-being, which captures also unmeasured amenities of the job and infrastructure or welfare provisions. To offer evidence for this hypothesis, we apply techniques of mediation analysis to data from two rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS 2004 and 2010). Our analysis suggested that the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions depends on the level of subjective well-being: the negative effect is found only when subjective well-being is relatively low (i.e. life satisfaction levels equal or below seven). Detailed results show that parents and older individuals have lower fertility intentions than childless and younger individuals when they have a job with uncertain conditions and a consequent low subjective well-being. We also found that – while the economic crisis was underway in 2010 – it was especially the deterioration in men’s position in the labor market that was associated with lower fertility plans.