A model to predict postoperative complications for otorhinolaryngology and maxillofacial surgery procedures in elderly patients

Purpose: All kinds of ear, nose, and throat and maxillofacial surgery (ENT/MFS) procedures are being increasingly performed in the elderly although old age is a major risk factor for increased postoperative complications. With only scarce evidence on the topic, surgeons are asked to critically evaluate their procedures’ indications and outcomes to balance the treatment risks and benefits. Our primary aim was to identify predictive factors for surgical outcomes in this setting and to create a predictive model for a tailored risk assessment. Methods: We analyzed a case series of 435 patients from an institutional clinical database at our academic tertiary care center. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify all possible covariates and nomograms using stepwise backward method were generated. The performance was assessed by calibration curves and c-index. Results: Overall complication rate was 18.3% within the first 30 days and the need for re-intervention was 5.9%. For those under general anesthesia, we identified specific risk factors and developed three risk-predicting models of overall, early, and late complications. All of the nomograms showed satisfactory accuracy with a c-index of 0.83, 0.75, 0.86, and 0.82, respectively. Conclusion: Using clinical preoperative variables, we constructed a model for predicting major adverse events in ENT/MFS patients. In our experience, patients over 65 showed a non-negligible risk for postoperative complications depending on several factors. Such tools might help in decision-making, by increasing the risk-awareness of clinicians, to better address peri-operative and post-operative care of these patients.