Economic Complexity and Fertility. Insights from a Low Fertility Country

This paper analyses the relationship between a new indicator of economic context, economic complexity (EC), and fertility change in Italian provinces for the period 2006–2015. We hypothesise that the level of EC is associated with fertility because it captures the capacity of a territory to innovate, grow, and create job opportunities. The results illustrate a clear positive association between EC and fertility change across Italian provinces for the period considered, net of traditional fertility predictors. Those areas that stand at the frontiers of EC are also more likely to dominate and adapt to the negative consequences of globalisation.