Impact of climate change on wine tourism: An approach through social media data

Wine tourism is one of the best opportunities for rural development, but because it is partially exposed to climatic conditions, it is a climate-vulnerable tourism activity. However, an understanding of the potential impacts of global climate change on this popular activity remains limited. This study proposes a new methodology that combines current daily gridded climate data from the E-OBS project with big spatiotemporal data from the Flickr photo-sharing platform through a generalized additive model This methodology was implemented to study the potential impacts on tourism flows due to climate change and to make predictions about the future using data from the CMIP5 project. We applied the methodology to 5 European wine tourism regions: Alsace (FR), Chianti (IT), La Rioja (SP), Langhe-Monferrato (IT), and Moselle (DE). Results show an increased probability of presence and increased deseasonalization of tourism in all study areas and an anticipation of peak presence from summer to spring in three of the five regions. We believe that these results can be useful for public and private stakeholders to adapt the offer of wine tourism services to changes in demand and to direct the organization of events such as festivals and thematic tours.