Climate Change and Urban Wellbeing: A Methodology Based on Sen Theory and Imprecise Probabilities

The phenomenon of urban heat waves are becoming a significant public health problem in the summer season. Global warming is therefore not only an environmental problem, but also an ethical and political issue of climate justice. The research was based on the capability approach developed by Amartya Sen. The aim of the study is to (1) identify a set of indicators that allows to estimate the risk of decreased individual well-being; (2) implement these indicators in a probabilistic model that allows to explicitly consider the lack of certain knowledge on the effects of climate change; (3) provide high resolution urban mapping for climate change adaptation strategies. The research focused on the vulnerable people (elderly people and children) in the city of Rosignano Solvay. The combination of the results, obtained through the aggregation Dempster’s rule, allows to identify the most critical areas on which it is necessary to intervene or through mitigation or urban regeneration.