Assessing of the climate change impacts on crops by adopting a set of crop performance indicators [Valutazione degli impatti del cambiamento climatico sulle colture attraverso l’adozione di un set di indicatori di performance colturale]

The Mediterranean basin is already experiencing temperature increase and rainfall reduction, which are projected to be more evident under future climate conditions. In order to appraise the climate change impacts on six crops of three Mediterranean islands, Crete Sicily and Cyprus, an approach indicators-based was adopted within the ADAPT2CLIMA project. A selected set of crop performance indicators, referring to crop phenology, physiology and productivity, for assessing the response of the crops to different climate conditions was selected. The indicators were calculated by applying three different crop simulation models: CropSyst, UNIFI.GrapeML and OLIVEmodel.CNR, under different climate conditions: the Baseline-Historical and the mead future (2031-2060) for RCP4.5 and 8.5. Although projections for all crops showed an advance of their phenological phases, the selected crops responded differently in terms of yield to climate change effects in the three analysed islands.