Disentangling the impact of a multiple-component project on SDG dimensions: The case of durum wheat value chain development in Oromia (Ethiopia)

The overall objective of this paper is to assess the impact of a value chain development project – the AVCPO in the Bale region (Oromia, Ethiopia) – on smallholder households focusing on the relationship between the food security goal (SDG2) and other SDG-related outcomes such as education (SDG4) and collective action and social capital (SDG16). Possible co-benefits and synergies among the SDGs are explored using a variety of approaches ranging from instrument variable techniques to evaluate the project overall impact on the various SDGs, multi-valued treatment effect analysis to assess which project component is more effective in achieving the expected impacts, and causal mediation modelling to evaluate to what extent collective action and social capital can play a role in achieving food security and education. Our study shows that the aggregate impact is positive and significant on most of the considered outcomes, namely food security (SDG2) except diet diversification, education (SDG4) of girls but not of boys, and collective action (SDG16), while social capital (SDG16) is significant only as far as horizontal relationships within the community are created. Disentangling the aggregate impact, we show that combined treatments (e.g. training plus storage facilities and marketing through cooperatives) generally return larger impacts than stand-alone treatments (e.g. training only). Finally, our study finds that collective action (SDG16) is an important channel that favors food security improvement (SDG2) but only to a lesser extent better education (SDG4).