The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy, starting from the northern regions, in late February 2020. Its diffusion along the peninsula was quite inhomogeneous, at the moment of lockdown, imposed starting from 11 March 2020. Consequently, standard models, like SIR, fail to provide accurate forecast for this epidemic. We here recall the main facts about a multi-regional extension of the SIR model, which proved quite robust to provide accurate forecast for the diffusion of this epidemic in Italy.
Modeling the COVID-19 spread in Italy / Brugnano, L.; Iavernaro, F.; Zanzottera, P.. - In: AIP CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS. - ISSN 0094-243X. - ELETTRONICO. - 2425:(2022), pp. 0900081-0900084. (Intervento presentato al convegno INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS ICNAAM 2020) [10.1063/5.0081456].
Modeling the COVID-19 spread in Italy
Brugnano, L.;
2022
Abstract
The COVID-19 epidemic hit Italy, starting from the northern regions, in late February 2020. Its diffusion along the peninsula was quite inhomogeneous, at the moment of lockdown, imposed starting from 11 March 2020. Consequently, standard models, like SIR, fail to provide accurate forecast for this epidemic. We here recall the main facts about a multi-regional extension of the SIR model, which proved quite robust to provide accurate forecast for the diffusion of this epidemic in Italy.
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