Using a SIRD model calibrated on COVID19-related deaths, we describe the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy at regional level from August 2020 to the end of February 2021. We estimate the time-varying reproductive number, R0(t), modelled as a natural cubic spline with six internal equi-spaced knots, and quantify the number of infections, included their submerged portion, under different infection fatality rate (IFR) scenarios. Comparing the observed number of infections with its prediction under different scenarios, some hints about a possible upper bound for IFR are drawn. As an example, we report the main results for three regions: Lazio, Toscana, and Valle d’Aosta.
The second wave of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy through a SIRD model / Michela Baccini, Giulia Cereda. - ELETTRONICO. - (2021), pp. 1718-1723. (Intervento presentato al convegno SIS 2021).
The second wave of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy through a SIRD model
Michela Baccini;Giulia Cereda
2021
Abstract
Using a SIRD model calibrated on COVID19-related deaths, we describe the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy at regional level from August 2020 to the end of February 2021. We estimate the time-varying reproductive number, R0(t), modelled as a natural cubic spline with six internal equi-spaced knots, and quantify the number of infections, included their submerged portion, under different infection fatality rate (IFR) scenarios. Comparing the observed number of infections with its prediction under different scenarios, some hints about a possible upper bound for IFR are drawn. As an example, we report the main results for three regions: Lazio, Toscana, and Valle d’Aosta.
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