We developed a compartmental model to describe the smoking habits evolution in Tuscany, relying on flexible modelling of age and sex-dependent smoking transition rates. Calibrating on observed data, we estimated the prevalence of current, former and never smokers in the population, and quantified the fraction of deaths attributable to smoking from 1994 to 2033. The model results indicate that smokers prevalence is decreasing over time. We speculate that this reduction could be related to health policies implemented up to now. Results highlight also that smoking habits are different among males and females.

Compartmental models in epidemiology: Application on Smoking Habits in Tuscany / Alessio Lachi, Cecilia Viscardi, Maria Chiara Malevolti, Giulia Carreras, Michela Baccini. - ELETTRONICO. - (2022), pp. 1437-1442. ((Intervento presentato al convegno SIS2022 - 51st Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society.

Compartmental models in epidemiology: Application on Smoking Habits in Tuscany

Alessio Lachi;Cecilia Viscardi;Giulia Carreras;Michela Baccini
2022

Abstract

We developed a compartmental model to describe the smoking habits evolution in Tuscany, relying on flexible modelling of age and sex-dependent smoking transition rates. Calibrating on observed data, we estimated the prevalence of current, former and never smokers in the population, and quantified the fraction of deaths attributable to smoking from 1994 to 2033. The model results indicate that smokers prevalence is decreasing over time. We speculate that this reduction could be related to health policies implemented up to now. Results highlight also that smoking habits are different among males and females.
Book of the Short Papers SIS 2022
SIS2022 - 51st Scientific Meeting of the Italian Statistical Society
Alessio Lachi, Cecilia Viscardi, Maria Chiara Malevolti, Giulia Carreras, Michela Baccini
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2158/1284099
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