Compartmental models in epidemiology: Application on Smoking Habits in Tuscany

We developed a compartmental model to describe the smoking habits evolution in Tuscany, relying on flexible modelling of age and sex-dependent smoking transition rates. Calibrating on observed data, we estimated the prevalence of current, former and never smokers in the population, and quantified the fraction of deaths attributable to smoking from 1994 to 2033. The model results indicate that smokers prevalence is decreasing over time. We speculate that this reduction could be related to health policies implemented up to now. Results highlight also that smoking habits are different among males and females.