Dealing with uncertainty, from overtourism to overcapacity: a decision support model for art cities: the case of UNESCO WHCC of Florence

This study analyses tourist flows in the UNESCO World Heritage Historic Centre of Florence before the occurrence of the COVID-19 crisis and examines how the pandemic has impacted the city. We build a system of indicators to measure the carrying capacity of art cities, assessing the risk exposure of these historic settings to overtourism. The model provides a detailed picture of the evolving tourism phenomenon and the economic, social, and environmental implications thereof. The indicators system supports local decision-makers in monitoring tourism flows and evaluating critical policies to preserve the destination heritage. It further examines the sustainable strategy implemented by the Municipality of Florence towards tourism recovery, as cities of art need to protect their cultural heritage and balance the needs of residents and tourists.