Cross-Validation of Machine Learning Models for the Functional Outcome Prediction after Post-Stroke Robot-Assisted Rehabilitation

The state of the art is still lacking an extensive analysis of which clinical characteristics are leading to better outcomes after robot-assisted rehabilitation on post-stroke patients. Prognostic machine learning-based models could promote the identification of predictive factors and be exploited as Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS). For this reason, the aim of this work was to set the first steps toward the development of a CDSS, by the development of machine learning models for the functional outcome prediction of post-stroke patients after upper-limb robotic rehabilitation. Four different regression algorithms were trained and cross-validated using a nested 5×10-fold cross-validation. The performances of each model on the test set were provided through the Median Average Error (MAE) and interquartile range. Additionally, interpretability analyses were performed, to evaluate the contribution of the features to the prediction. The results on the two best performing models showed a MAE of 13.6 [13.4] and 13.3 [14.8] on the Modified Barthel Index score (MBI). The interpretability analyses highlighted the Fugl-Meyer Assessment, MBI, and age as the most relevant features for the prediction of the outcome. This work showed promising results in terms of outcome prognosis after robot-assisted treatment. Further research should be planned for the development, validation and translation into clinical practice of CDSS in rehabilitation. Clinical relevance- This work establishes the premises for the development of data-driven tools able to support the clinical decision for the selection and optimisation of the robotic rehabilitation treatment.