The study provides a stochastic methodology that considers the impact of climate change on floods (inflow hydrographs in the reservoir) and on the probability of a given water level in the reservoir in the future. Moreover, an uncertainty chain analysis is done to consider all the sources of errors in the methodology. A fully distributed hydrological model, the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) model, is used to assess the impact of climate on flood quantiles at a sub-daily scale. The continuous HBV hydrological model is combined with a reservoir operation model to assess the future initial reservoir water level frequency at a daily scale. An ensemble of 12 climate models provides the climate projections for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three time windows (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100). The results show an increase in the future of maxima reservoir water levels associated with the most extreme events, especially in the 2071-2100 time window and RCP 8.5. Overtopping probability also increases in this latter scenario, while no changes are expected for the RCP 4.5.

A stochastic methodology to assess the impact of climate change on the Eugui hydrological dam safety (Spain) / Marco Lompi, Luis Mediero, Enrique Soriano, Enrica Caporali. - ELETTRONICO. - (2022), pp. 7237-7241. ((Intervento presentato al convegno 39th IAHR World Congress tenutosi a Granada nel 19-24 June 2022 [10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022904].

A stochastic methodology to assess the impact of climate change on the Eugui hydrological dam safety (Spain)

Marco Lompi
Investigation
;
Enrica Caporali
Supervision
2022

Abstract

The study provides a stochastic methodology that considers the impact of climate change on floods (inflow hydrographs in the reservoir) and on the probability of a given water level in the reservoir in the future. Moreover, an uncertainty chain analysis is done to consider all the sources of errors in the methodology. A fully distributed hydrological model, the Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator (RIBS) model, is used to assess the impact of climate on flood quantiles at a sub-daily scale. The continuous HBV hydrological model is combined with a reservoir operation model to assess the future initial reservoir water level frequency at a daily scale. An ensemble of 12 climate models provides the climate projections for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three time windows (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100). The results show an increase in the future of maxima reservoir water levels associated with the most extreme events, especially in the 2071-2100 time window and RCP 8.5. Overtopping probability also increases in this latter scenario, while no changes are expected for the RCP 4.5.
39th IAHR World Congress— From snow to sea
39th IAHR World Congress
Granada
19-24 June 2022
Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities
Goal 13: Climate action
Goal 15: Life on land
Marco Lompi, Luis Mediero, Enrique Soriano, Enrica Caporali
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2158/1287810
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