Development of an urban household food-energy-water policy nexus dynamic simulator

Increasing pressure from population growth and climate change has placed various challenges to urban systems concerning the sustainable supply and use of food, energy and water. To achieve the synergistic and sustainable management of food, energy and water demand, the inter-linkages between the three subsystems should be explored. Taking Beijing as the case study reproducible in a like manner for other urban systems, this research aims to develop a household Food-Energy-Water (FEW) nexus dynamic model to explore the influence of various factors on the end-uses. Three main innovation points are included in this research. Firstly, long-term simulations from 2010 to 2050 can be provided in this model to quantitatively estimate climate change potential under possible management strategies. Secondly, three different levels of influencing factors of household resource consumption are included in this model at the same time, including individual level (behaviors), household level (appliances) and government level (resource prices). Thirdly, multiple scenarios combinations are analyzed in this research. The results demonstrate the complex interconnections among the household food-energy-water uses. What' more, short-term effects, lag effects as well as lock-in effects can influence the policy effectiveness, so that policy combinations or complements are needed to enhance the effects.