“Classic” demography imputes population aging to low fertility. In this paper we show that, in the long term, mortality affects the population age structure, and therefore also aging, more than it is usually believed. With long-term data (1820-2016) from three European countries (England, France and Sweden), using cointegration analysis, we show the observed long-term change in the proportions of young people, adults and elderly people can be “explained” exclusively by changes in survival, ignoring fertility and migration.
Evoluzione della mortalità e della struttura per età in tre paesi europei (1820-2017) / Gustavo De Santis. - STAMPA. - (2023), pp. 259-271. (Intervento presentato al convegno Condizioni di vita e disuguaglianze. Una prospettiva storico-demografica, SIDES tenutosi a Milano nel 2-4 Dicembre 2021).
Evoluzione della mortalità e della struttura per età in tre paesi europei (1820-2017)
Gustavo De Santis
2023
Abstract
“Classic” demography imputes population aging to low fertility. In this paper we show that, in the long term, mortality affects the population age structure, and therefore also aging, more than it is usually believed. With long-term data (1820-2016) from three European countries (England, France and Sweden), using cointegration analysis, we show the observed long-term change in the proportions of young people, adults and elderly people can be “explained” exclusively by changes in survival, ignoring fertility and migration.
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