We use the information in the successive vintages of GDE and GDI to obtain an improved timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures taking seriously their monthly release calendar. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, did not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. Our results suggest that revised GDE estimates, unlike GDI ones, are increasingly precise and receive higher weights, but early estimates retain some influence.
GDP solera: the ideal vintage mix / Martin Almuzara, Dante Amengual, Gabriele Fiorentini, Enrique Sentana. - In: JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS. - ISSN 0735-0015. - STAMPA. - 42:(2024), pp. 984-997. [10.1080/07350015.2023.2273622]
GDP solera: the ideal vintage mix
Dante Amengual;Gabriele Fiorentini;
2024
Abstract
We use the information in the successive vintages of GDE and GDI to obtain an improved timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures taking seriously their monthly release calendar. We also combine all existing overlapping comprehensive revisions to achieve further improvements. We pay particular attention to the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, which, despite producing dramatic fluctuations, did not generate noticeable revisions in previous growth rates. Our results suggest that revised GDE estimates, unlike GDI ones, are increasingly precise and receive higher weights, but early estimates retain some influence.I documenti in FLORE sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.