The role of probabilistic reasoning in risk perception and intentional behaviors during the COVID-19 Pandemic

During the last year, governments around the world used statistics data to keep people informed about Covid-19, to stress the importance of managing this disease and to encourage to adopt preventive behaviors. In this study, we investigated a mechanism underlying intentional nonprecautionary behaviors during the COVID-19 lockdown. We hypothesized that the comprehension of COVID-19 risk statistics information had a central role in mediating the relationship between probabilistic reasoning ability and perceived statistics value (the antecedents) and the intention to act non-precautionary behaviors. Participants were 141 university students enrolled in an online study. Results revealed that probabilistic reasoning ability and perception of statistics value had a role in reducing the likelihood of engaging in transgressive behaviors through their impact on the ability to adequately reason with statistics data referred to the COVID-19 epidemic.