Climate change may cause the extinction of the butterfly Lasiommata petropolitana in the Apennines

Climate change represents a threat to narrow-ranged mountain species living in low-altitude massifs. We studied the disjunct Apennine population of Lasiommata petropolitana (Lepidoptera, Nymphalidae) in the Gran Sasso and Monti della Laga National Park. We quantified the altitudinal shifts undergone in the last decades (1964–2021) in the Alps and Apennines and estimated the local extinction risk due to climate change. We also sequenced the COI mitochondrial marker of seven Apennine specimens, comparing them with those available across the Palearctic. We projected the probability of presence for the species under a future climatic scenario using an ensemble forecasting approach. We found that, despite geographical isolation, the Apennine population of L. petropolitana displays a single widespread COI haplotype also occurring in most European populations. In the Alps and Apennines, this species has shifted uphill an average of 6.3 m per year since 1964. Accordingly, our model predicted a likely extinction in the Apennines by about 2060, due to a reduction of the climatic suitability in this region.