Predicting the European Invasion of the Oak Lace Bug: A Species Distribution Modelling Perspective

Biological invasions pose significant threats to ecological and economic stability worldwide. The oak lace bug (Corythucha arcuata), a North American species, has rapidly spread across 24 European countries in just two decades, signalling its potential establishment as a major pest for European oak communities. This invasive species has the potential to negatively impact oak growth, vitality, and reproductive success in both the short and long term. To effectively understand and manage its environmental impact, it is crucial to conduct a comprehensive assessment of its distribution and identify risk areas for further spread within Europe. In this study, we gathered presence data from 19 countries using various sources, including expert observations, citizen science reports, and GBIF data, which were meticulously verified by national experts. By employing advanced machine learning techniques, we developed a species distribution model that incorporates both current and future climate conditions, with the distribution of host species acting as a covariate. Additionally, we conducted environmental systematic sampling to account for the non-equilibrium of the invasive species with the environment and removed geographically distant absences that were environmentally close to the presence data. Our findings highlight the dual role of climate and host species in driving the distribution of the oak lace bug in Europe, with the potential distribution of sessile oak and Turkey oak emerging as important predictors. Currently, the species is mainly confined to the southern regions of Europe. However, considering the migration capacity of the species, climate change dynamics, and potential host migration, it is likely to expand its range into new territories in Central and North-eastern Europe. This study provides a comprehensive dataset of the oak lace bug's current presence as well as its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This dataset serves as a valuable tool for forestry and environmental science professionals, facilitating the development of integrated monitoring and pest management strategies that protect forest ecosystems and human health. In conclusion, our research sheds light on the environmental impact and distribution patterns of the oak lace bug in Europe. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the intricate relationship between climate, host species, and invasive species dynamics. By employing this knowledge, we can enhance forest management practices and contribute to the preservation of both natural ecosystems and human well-being.