Climate change concerns and fertility intentions: first evidence from Italy

The impact of climate change is being felt worldwide, with Europe experiencing the fastest rate of warming among all continents. Beyond socioeconomic consequences, climate change can potentially affect demographic outcomes, including fertility, in terms of both reproductive health and fertility behavior. However, to date, there is limited evidence on the relationship between climate change and fertility. With this paper, we intend to (1) expand the theoretical discussion on the role of uncertainty in childbearing decisions by moving beyond the common focus on economic uncertainty to explicitly consider the role of environmental uncertainty; (2) broaden the scholarly understanding of the relationship between climate change and fertility, which has mainly focused on objective measures of climate change, by investigating the role of climate change concerns; and (3) offer the first empirical evidence on the association between climate change concerns and fertility intentions for Italy using the 2016 Household Multipurpose Survey “Family and Social Subjects” (FSS) (N = 4408). Our results provide initial indications that environmental uncertainty may be linked to lower fertility intentions. Individuals who perceive climate change as a major issue or the biggest problem of the future tend to be less likely to report an intention to have a child. This pattern appears consistent across parity groups, and the findings remained stable net of sociodemographic characteristics and individuals’ positioning on the conservative–liberal spectrum. Overall, these findings contribute to the discussion on how uncertainties and pessimism may shape childbearing intentions.