Evaluation of the Impact of Tourism Flows on the Urban Food Service Industry. A Sensitivity Analysis on the City of Rome

Following the end of the pandemic in 2022, habits regarding leisure, tourism, and dining have been subjected to several changes and oscillations. As proven by several sources, such as the FIPE report and the ISFORT report on citizens’ expenses, dining out has become slightly more frequent for residents. At the same time, tourist flows have increased, reaching new records for several European cities, especially in Italy. This latter phenomenon appears to be predominant compared to the former. This variation of flows has also produced variations in urban morphology, with a marked increase in the number of restaurants, especially with an increase in the number of restaurants, yet dependent on tourism oscillations. By focusing on the city of Rome, this paper evaluates the dependency of the food service industry on tourist flows: this is performed through a quantitative survey of the number and typology of restaurants, a financial analysis to assess the economic flows related to tourism, a break-even analysis to determine the inflection points of this phenomenon, and finally the simulation of decreasing tourism scenarios – made realistic by the current geopolitical situation – complemented by a sensitivity analysis. A 5% tourism drop results in a loss of ~16.5 million meals annually, pushing 450–600 additional restaurants below BEP, while a 10% decline results in 33 million lost meals, increasing failures to 900–1,200 businesses. The historical center is the most vulnerable, potentially losing up to 600 restaurants, while peripheral areas are less affected due to their reliance on local customers.