Mega Science and Re-Nationalization in the Field of Semiconductors. An Evidence-Based Exploration of Decoupling Triggered by the China Initiative

Few technologies have attracted as much concern recently as semi-conductors, known for being among the most expensive endeavors in science and technology. There are at least two concurrent reasons for this heightened atten-tion: first, the United States is striving to defend its supremacy against a rising China through policies such as the China Initiative and the CHIPS Act. Second, Taiwan, the world leader in semiconductor frontier and production, is a highly politically contested region. By analyzing collaborations across Mainland China, Taiwan, and the US, this study explores the impact of research megaprojects on scientific publications. We specifically investigate the extent to which decoupling is occurring, identifying which players—among the locations of authors, funding agencies, and major global private companies—are more likely to produce leading research in the field, particularly before and after the implementation of relevant US policies. The results indicate that, while we cannot establish causal effects, decoupling is indeed taking place, with the US side being comparatively the most detrimentally affected by its own policies.