Do daily dynamics in rumination and affect predict depressive symptoms and trait rumination? An experience sampling study

Background and objectives: Rumination has been shown to prospectively predict the onset of depression. However, it is unclear how rumination and affect in daily life influence the development of depressive symptoms. The present study examined whether the structure of dynamics in rumination and affect could prospectively predict depressive symptoms and trait rumination in an undergraduate sample (n = 63). Methods: The main index used was entropy, which reflects the instability of a system's structure. Momentary rumination and affect were assessed eight times per day for a period of seven days. Additionally, depressive symptoms and trait rumination were measured at the beginning of the experiment and at six weeks follow-up. Results: The results showed that entropy significantly predicted trait rumination at follow-up (and depressive symptoms at trend level) while taking into account baseline depressive symptoms and trait rumination. Limitations: The follow-up measurements conducted six weeks after the baseline were relatively short. Further research may test the predictive effect of the structure over a longer period and confirm its effect by using different indices that describe the structure. Conclusions: These findings indicate that examining the structure of the dynamics in momentary rumination and affect holds promise for understanding the risk for depression.