Anthropogenic climate change contributed to excess dengue risk related to hydrometeorological conditions in Brazil and China

Hydrometeorological conditions are substantially linked to the dengue epidemic. Although human activity is considered a major driver of climate change, its contribution to hydrometeorology-related dengue burden remains unclear. Clarifying this question is essential for developing climate actions to mitigate dengue risk. Here, we compared the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to dengue incidence related to hydrometeorological conditions, measured by the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), in Brazil and China—two typical countries in each hemisphere—and investigated the modification effects of urban characteristics. We found that during 1981–2020, 73.6% of PDSI-related dengue excess risk in Brazil and 26.5% in China could be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Higher urbanization was linked with a lower attributable impact of anthropogenic climate change. These findings underscore the substantial role of human-induced climate change in shaping dengue risk and the importance of integrating climate action with urban planning to prevent and control dengue epidemics.