Do Expectations of Late-Life Care Needs and Future Outlook Influence Fertility Intentions? Evidence from Italy

Recent studies have shown that the future temporal dimension –understood in terms of expectations and future narratives – can influence fertility intentions. However, research on this topic remains limited and often focuses exclusively on the economic sphere. This article contributes to the existing literature by investigating whether expectations related to the need for care in old age and individuals’ outlook on their future affect reproductive intentions. Furthermore, it aims to clarify the relationship between objective conditions (employment status), subjective perceptions of economic and occupational stability, and future-oriented subjective components. To this end, we apply a stepwise binomial logistic regression and report average marginal effects to facilitate comparisons across models. The results show that while concerns about needing care in old age don’t affect fertility intentions, people’s views of the future – whether optimistic or pessimistic – do. Future expectations partly mediate the link between a partner’s employment status and fertility intentions, with economic and job insecurity influencing this pathway.