Media trends and public interest in wildfires in Tuscany, Italy

Wildfires have increased in intensity and frequency since the beginning of the 20th century, primarily driven by climatic and socio-economic changes. This shift makes fire suppression an inefficient approach, warranting further investigation into the human component of forest fire prevention. The analy- sis of social and environmental factors could be useful in assessing wildfire risks. In this study, we assess communication trends by analysing media news and posts about wildfires in Italy, with a specific focus on the Tuscany region. The paper investigates the relationship between wildfires and media habits in specific areas. The communication analysis results reveal that the year 2017 marked the highest peak of fire news in Italy on Twitter [current name: X] (450). Compared with others, Tuscany is the Italian region with the highest number of reports in the studied period (233 over 10 years). Wildfire-related news spread throughout the year, peaking in the dry season (between May and October, and especially from June to August). Statistical analyses, including single-variable, combination, and interaction models, indicate the strongest correlation between newspapers’ chronic articles and the number of wildfire events. The wildfire vs. communication index facili- tates the comparison of ecological and social parameters, determining criti- cal areas (CA) in Tuscany. This study highlights the link between media habits and wildfire occurrence as a novel lens for understanding risk percep- tion. Though based in Tuscany, the findings and the index approach offer a transferable method for identifying awareness gaps in fire-prone areas, especially Mediterranean-type regions.