Energy modeling and Life Cycle Assessment of the Italian electricity grid and energy storage system: comparison of current state and forecast to 2030

Purpose: The aim is to fill two literature gaps concerning the role of energy storage systems (ESS) in the future Italian electricity mix. Firstly, there is a lack of national-scale simulations for the energy performance of the Italian grid and ESS in a future-oriented scenario. Secondly, there is an absence of an integrated dynamic simulation model combining Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The study specifically investigates whether ESS connected to grid infrastructure can provide environmental benefits at the national level, excluding behind-the-meter installations. Methods: The study introduces a method to comprehensively assess the joint energy and environmental performance of the electric grid and storage systems. A two-step model is used to simulate the Italian electricity grid, which employs the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) Flextool software to model the national grid and a MATLAB code to evaluate the performance of ESSs. A LCA is performed in order to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of the whole system, including the power generation and storage facilities deployed at national level. The Life Cycle Inventory covers different storage systems, such as Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) and Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NCM) batteries, Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS), and Hydrogen Storage Systems (HSS). Results and discussion: The findings underscore that the achievement of the goals of the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (INECP) incorporating ESSs can significantly diminish electricity production from fossil fuels, leading to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, the study notes that existing ESS capacities are inadequate to fully harness excess energy. To address this, the proposal includes deploying more extensive storage capacities across Italy and embracing power-to-x solutions. Despite minimal environmental impact from ESSs compared to the entire grid, storing surplus electricity from renewables offers substantial environmental benefits. The research emphasizes the substantial resource and environmental impact of PV systems during the construction phase. Conclusion: This study reveals that, while the INECP aligns with greenhouse gas mitigation goals, there are environmental concerns like critical material consumption. Additionally, the impact of a national grid-level ESS may be limited in smoothing demand and generation curves, especially compared to smaller utilities. Despite being recognized as vital for energy transition, particularly in distributed behind-the-meter applications, grid-connected ESSs have a marginal impact on significantly reducing the overall environmental footprint of the electric generation mix.