Bridging Accuracy and Interpretability: A Decision Support System for Stock Deployment and Additive Manufacturing Decisions in Spare Parts Distribution Networks

ackground: Spare parts distribution networks (DNs) play a strategic role in retailers’ profitability. Among DN configuration decisions, selecting the optimal stock deployment policy—centralised, decentralised, or hybrid inventory allocation across distribution centres (DCs)—critically affects service levels and logistics costs. This decision becomes more complex with additive manufacturing (AM) as an alternative to conventional manufacturing (CM). While AM enables production with shorter lead times, its higher costs alter stock deployment cost-effectiveness. Given the complexity of joint stock deployment and manufacturing decisions, retailers require decision support systems (DSSs). Methods: To address this need, we develop a DSS through a three-step methodology: (i) a mathematical model evaluates logistics costs across different stock deployment policies and manufacturing technologies; (ii) parametric analysis tests the model across 2000 realistic scenarios; (iii) Random Forest trained on this dataset predicts optimal solutions, with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpreting post hoc recommendations. Results: The DSS achieves 93.4% prediction accuracy—outperforming (+16.4%) the only comparable literature DSS (77%)—while explaining recommendations. SHAP reveals that AM and CM unit costs dominate decision-making, followed by backorder costs. Conclusions: Beyond individual spare parts recommendations, the DSS provides guidelines enabling retailers to maintain cost-effective DNs aligned with evolving customer needs and to plan valuable investments in AM.