Non-intact families and adolescents’ family satisfaction during the Second Demographic Transition: A test of the institutionalization hypothesis

Background: The institutionalization hypothesis suggests that the negative association between parental separation and children’s outcomes diminishes as divorce becomes more socially accepted and widespread. Although the available evidence provides little support for this hypothesis, drawing definitive conclusions remains challenging due to limitations in existing studies. Objective: Using a large sample of Italian adolescents (ages 14–19), this study provides a robust test by comparing children from intact (N = 60,031) and non-intact (N = 7,969) families over 25 years, between 1996 and 2020. Leveraging both temporal and regional (NUTS-2) variation in Second Demographic Transition (SDT)-related behaviors, we examine whether the negative association between non-intact families and adolescents’ family satisfaction weakens as new family forms become more common. Methods: We apply logistic regression models to data from the Italian Institute of Statistics’ repeated cross-sectional surveys, Aspects of Daily Life, augmented with a composite SDT index for 456 region–year combinations. We model two outcomes: being very satisfied with family relations and being a little or not at all satisfied. Results: Adolescents living in non-intact families report a lower probability of being very satisfied than their peers in intact families, regardless of the level of SDT diffusion. Results for the probability of being a little or not at all satisfied provide greater support for the institutionalization hypothesis, as the disadvantage of adolescents living with a single parent is substantially reduced. However, non-intact penalties persist even at higher levels of SDT diffusion. Contribution: Our results show that the negative effects of family disruptions on adolescents’ well-being are more amenable to change than previously thought. However, these disadvantages should not be expected to ‘spontaneously’ disappear as a result of the diffusion of the SDT alone.