Perceived Disorder, Fear of Crime, and Safety in Urban Parks: A Structural Equation Modeling Study from a Large Metropolitan Green Area in Florence, Italy

Urban parks are key components of metropolitan green infrastructure, contributing to residents’ well-being. However, perceptions of disorder and safety may substantially shape how these spaces are experienced, particularly during evening hours. This study investigates the structural relationships between perceived disorder, fear of crime, avoidance behaviors, perceived safety, and service satisfaction. The primary objective is to disentangle the pathways linking disorder perceptions to behavioral and perceptual outcomes using a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) framework. A structured survey was administered to users of a large metropolitan urban park (N = 742). Latent constructs representing Perceived Disorder, Fear of Crime, Avoidance Behaviors, and Service Satisfaction were specified, controlling for Age and Gender. The SEM was estimated using robust methods for ordinal indicators. The measurement model demonstrated good reliability and validity. Results indicate that Perceived Disorder acts as a strong precursor to Fear of Crime. Fear of Crime emerged as a pivotal mediator, significantly increasing Avoidance Behaviors and strongly reducing Perceived Safety at night. Furthermore, significant demographic effects were observed: female users reported significantly higher levels of fear, while age showed a direct positive association with perceived safety. While disorder strongly impacted the emotional and behavioral dimensions (fear and avoidance), its direct link to Service Satisfaction was less prominent compared to safety perceptions. The findings suggest that the impact of disorder on the park experience is largely channeled through psychological mechanisms of fear. Integrated policies addressing social disorder and fear reduction are likely to be more effective than purely physical interventions to enhance safety perceptions and park usage.